Moderate Solar Flare / .NET Domain / Solar Update
5/17/2012 by Kevin VE3EN at 02:00 UTC

Updated 5/17/2012 @ 02:00 UTC
1476 Produces Solar Flare
Just as we thought we have seen the last of Sunspot 1476, the former active region decided to produce a solar flare reaching above the M5.0 level. The GOES Solar X-Ray data did show M4.6 before it stopped reporting at 01:43 UTC Thursday morning. SDO/EVE data suggests it may have been closer to M8.0. Because of the sunspots location, any possible CME may be directed mostly away from Earth. Stay Tuned for more information.

M-Class Solar Flare (Early Thursday) - SDO

Updated 5/16/2012 @ 22:40 UTC
Aurora Watch
The Kp index is slowly creeping upwards and Aurora may be possible at very high latitudes. The Bz component of the IMF is currently tipped southwards.

Updated 5/16/2012 @ 22:00 UTC
.NET Domain
Just a quick update. For anybody still having problems getting onto the website, I just launched a backup domain and server. You can access my website at www.solarham.(NET). Both .COM and .NET will be updated at same time. I hope this helps.Thank You again for the support. - Kevin

Updated 5/16/2012 @ 10:30 UTC
Solar Update
Solar activity is at low levels with only minor C-Class flare activity being detected. Sunspot 1476 which is now a shell of its former self, continues to decay as it approaches the western limb. Sunspots 1482 and 1484 may eventually become the two largest current Earth facing sunspots, however both are magnetically stable at this time.

What is left of Sunspot 1476 (Wednesday) - SDO

Eastern Limb Prominences (Tuesday) - By Ron Cottrell

Sunspots 1482 and 1484 (Tuesday) - SDO

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated May 16 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N13W73) produced a
few C-class flares while continuing to decay. Regions 1482 (N13E10)
and 1484 (N09E38) also produced a few low level C-class events. A
pair of CMEs associated with apparent filament eruptions were
observed in LASCO C2/C3, but neither appear to be earth directed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (17-19 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  With the exception of an
isolated unsettled or active period early on day 1 (17 May) from an
expected solar sector boundary crossing, geomagnetic field
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet throughout the period
(17-19 May).

III.  Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green



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Sunspot Summary - [SolarHam.com Sunspot Summary]

A - Alpha (single polarity spot). B - Beta (bipolar spot configuration). G - Gamma (atypical mixture of polarities). BG - Beta-Gamma (mixture of polarities in a dominantly bipolar configuration). D - Delta (opposite polarity umbrae within single penumbra). BD - Beta with a Delta configuration. BGD - Beta-Gamma with a Delta configuration. [Latest Sunspot Summary]